As the Royal Highland Show got underway in Edinburgh, Scotland’s meat and farming industries have raised fresh concerns about the impact of UK trade deals on domestic agriculture, warning that growing meat imports from countries such as Australia, New Zealand and Brazil risk destabilising the home market.
Quality Meat Scotland (QMS), the national marketing and research body for the red meat sector, said that while farmers are not opposed to trade in principle, the “creepage” of imported meat through multiple post-Brexit deals could cumulatively threaten Scotland’s food security and farming sustainability.
“We’re not afraid of trade,” said Sarah Millar, chief executive of QMS. “But it’s got to be done on a fair and equitable basis. All of these trade deals, when they come together, could have a destabilising effect.”
The warning comes amid optimism in other corners of the industry, with new markets opening in regions such as the United Arab Emirates — which began importing Scotch lamb last year — and India, where a recent UK trade deal has halved import duties on Scotch whisky.
However, QMS is urging policymakers to consider the cumulative effect of overlapping trade agreements, rather than assessing each one in isolation.
According to QMS modelling, Scotland would need an additional 79,000 cows by 2030 to replace imported beef with home-grown alternatives — equivalent to adding two animals per herd, per year. That figure would climb even higher if exports were to expand into markets like the United States, which is currently facing a beef shortage due to prolonged droughts.
Yet with Scottish cattle numbers in long-term decline, industry leaders say supply constraints risk undermining any export opportunity gains.
The post-Brexit trade deal with Australia, which came into effect in May 2023, remains a particular sore point for UK farmers. It was the first such agreement signed after the UK left the EU, and many in the sector believe it granted too much access to foreign producers at the expense of British standards.
Since then, agreements in principle have been reached with around 70 countries, prompting renewed scrutiny from farming unions and trade groups.
The Scotch Whisky Association has welcomed the India deal, predicting a £1 billion export boost over the next five years and 1,200 new UK jobs. Meanwhile, Scottish barley growers hope rising demand for malt will increase planting opportunities.
Neil White, a barley farmer in the Scottish Borders, said his operation could almost double barley output if prices improved.
“I currently grow 25–30% spring barley,” he said. “If the premium was there, I could grow a lot more. It’s a relatively cheap crop to grow, and we’ve got a local, prestige market.”
There is also renewed hope that the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement, recently updated, could ease red tape at borders and help small food producers and the seed potato industry, which estimates it lost £75 million in sales to the EU over the past five years.
However, some remain cautious about alignment with EU rules without direct UK input into their creation. NFU Scotland said it welcomes the “reset” in relations but warned of future risks.
“Recovering lost markets is crucial,” said Jonnie Hall, NFU Scotland’s director of policy. “But it’s equally important that anything imported into the UK meets the same high production and welfare standards as our home-produced food.”
Hall stressed that any relaxation of food import standards, such as allowing hormone-treated beef from the US, would be unacceptable.
“We’re all doing a bit of crystal ball gazing at the moment,” he added. “We need to see the real detail to understand the implications.”
With meat imports rising and livestock numbers under pressure, Scottish farmers are calling for a joined-up approach to trade, one that supports export ambitions without undermining the integrity and competitiveness of home-grown food. As global deals multiply, the balance between opportunity and risk remains delicately poised.