By Katherine K. Chan
CASH REMITTANCES are projected to remain resilient for the rest of the year, potentially surpassing the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 2.8% full-year growth target, analysts said.
However, they also warned of possible external shocks that could dampen remittance growth.
“We’re on track. First-half growth hit 3.1%, already above BSP’s 2.8% forecast,” Jonathan L. Ravelas, a senior adviser at Reyes Tacandong & Co., said in a Viber message.
“If global labor markets stay resilient and the peso remains competitive, we could even beat the (BSP’s) 2.8% full-year target.”
Money sent home by overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) rose by 3.1% to $16.75 billion in the first six months of the year, with land-based workers contributing the bulk of the increase.
The BSP is targeting a 2.8% growth in remittances this year, and 3% growth for 2026.
Remittance inflows are expected to accelerate ahead of the holiday season, analysts said.
“We expect remittances to remain a constant and reliable source of foreign currency over the next few months, with a seasonal acceleration as we enter the fourth quarter of the year,” Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co. (Metrobank) Chief Economist Nicholas Antonio T. Mapa said.
Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion, chief economist at Union Bank of the Philippines, Inc., said the BSP’s full-year target of 2.8% remittance growth is “well within reach.”
“Remittance flows are expected to remain resilient, supported by seasonal inflows during the ‘ber’ months and improving global labor conditions,” he said.
Analysts warned the US government’s 1% tax on remittances, which will take effect on Jan. 1, 2026, will have a dampening effect on remittances from US-based Filipinos.
“However, the proposed 1% remittance tax in the US could pose downside risks in 2026. While the BSP’s 3% growth target remains achievable, the tax may dampen inflows from the US — currently the largest source — unless mitigated by digital remittance innovations or policy support,” Mr. Asuncion said.
The tax will be applied on cash-based remittance transfers from US-based senders, regardless of citizenship status.
BSP data showed the US remained the top source of remittances to the country in the first half, accounting for 40.1% of total remittances for the period.
“The proposed 1% US remittance tax could dampen inflows (from formal channels) slightly if implemented, but its real impact will depend on scope, implementation, and possible offsets from fintech cost reductions or regulatory responses,” John Paolo R. Rivera, a senior research fellow at the Philippine Institute for Development Studies, said in Viber message.
Mr. Ravelas said the proposed tax is a “red flag,” as it might encourage senders to use informal channels.
“That’s a red flag. The US sends over 40% of our remittances. A 1% tax could dampen flows or push senders to informal channels,” he said. “We’ll need to watch how it’s implemented and prepare support mechanisms for OFWs.”
Mr. Mapa said OFWs have been “creative” in finding ways to send money back home in the past.
“We could still expect remittance flows to remain robust in the near term,” he said.
Meanwhile, Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort noted US protectionist policies and stricter immigration rules could weigh on remittances from the US.
“Trump’s threats of higher reciprocal tariffs and other America-first policies could also slow down global trade, investments, employment including some OFW jobs, and overall world economic growth,” he said in an e-mail. “This could also indirectly slow down the growth in OFW remittances from other countries around the world.”